When Russia attacked Ukraine in the beginning of 2022, we saw something many thought unimaginable: almost worldwide sanctions on the aggressor Russia.
While it can be debated, whether the sanctions go far enough to bring Russia to retreat from Ukraine it still shows that there is a will to stop senseless atrocities and provide help where needed (even if it is for national interests at the end of the day).
But with sanctions of course, comes a price. Quite literally, as large quantities of oil and gas from Russia were a cornerstone of the european economy.
Europe is ready to swallow some bitter pills as a result, as prices rise, whole sectors are under the threat of going bankrupt and its people fearing a cold winter, should the conflict not resolve.
The motivation to take this into account comes from:
-The fear of getting attacked by Russia also, if it should be able to take Ukraine
-The unwillingness to just let our neighbours die by the hands of Dr. Evil aka Putin
-The unwillingness to lose an economic partner as Ukraine is one of the biggest providers of grains for example
While this is already horrible enough it could get worse: China is openly threatening Taiwan to get "liberated" as well.
What are scenarios here:
#1 Nobody does anything about the situation and Taiwan gets threatened for all eternity but it stays pretty much the same all the time -> highly unlikely as China is growing its military at break-neck-speeds with Taiwan in its focus.
#2 Taiwan falls to China, the world just does nothing and has to face shame for letting a democratic country fall into the hands of a dictatorship with all implications incorporated -> highly unlikely, as this would only fuel further empirialistic ambitions
#3 The world intervenes and China also becomes the target of the biggest sanctions ever imposed in history, as China is one of the biggest economic players in the world with exports to almost every country on earth. This would result in an epic market crash, worldwide shortages in nearly every good imaginable -> very likely as the alternatives are not
A reality in which China gets cut off from the market, every first world country would face massive problems in supply chains, prices would skyrocket and in an instant the cheap lifestyle we all know and love would disappear in an instant. About anything of our belongings gets at least partially produced in China. Cutting those things out of our daily lives seems hard and it is.
But where there is a will there is a way.
Maybe this is the wake up call the world needs.
Too many things become produced under unethical and overall terrible conditions. This might be triggering point in which countries decide to produce with quality and repairability in mind. Sure a German washing machine might cost a lot but it will potentially last longer and be repairable. Furthermore companies might shift to produce their goods in more democratic countries, in which man-hours are still cheap, such as Greece or Romania.
While the first years of such drastic sanctions might be big burden to societies all over the globe it might lead to the long awaited and needed changes in consumer behavior:
It becomes more frugal and highly concerned on quality.
Producing our goods largely in European or American countries will most likely rise prices but at the same time will lead to shorter delivery routes as goods get produced more domestically.
Another positive aspect might be innovation. As many resources can only be found in areas such as Russia and China, first world markets are forced to find replacements for those materials wherever possible. Also long dead technology might find its long awaited revival.
Often the cheap stuff is only cheap at first glance because the bill it causes has to be paid by someone else. The usage of many toxic materials in everyday products is usually a problem for future generations and then it is often not as cheap to take care of them.
Microplastics are a good example of this behaviour as we only recently discovered its terrible effects on biology, when it turned out, that it might cause infertility in men for example (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7967748/).
Maybe and just maybe, China and other countries with their constant threats and ethical problems will change the overall attitude of our societies and their wrongdoings will no longer be tolerated.
Personally I do not think that is currently the case, as for example Germany is already preparing partnerships with other dictators to deliver cheap gas for example instead of taking care of their promises of a green sustainable future.
But who knows, I would like to be proven wrong on this.
Nevertheless, every crisis is a chance to correct past mistakes even though it is also possible to take measures beforehand...
