As of January 2025, Russia's war on Ukraine is entering its third year. While Western democracies lack a cohesive strategy beyond imposing lackluster sanctions to end the conflict, there are several ways to bring Russia to its knees and compel it to withdraw from Ukraine.
In its attempt to capture Ukraine, Russia has suffered massive losses in manpower and materiel, to the point where it now relies on North Korean soldiers and artillery shells to sustain its war effort. This reliance indicates that Russia has largely run out of momentum, as evidenced by its minimal territorial gains achieved at the cost of extreme casualties.
As a result, Russia is largely incapable of defending itself against potential aggression from a third-party country and is dependent on China's goodwill to avoid invasion and the annexation of territories that China views as historically or strategically significant.
This situation presents an opportunity for a morally questionable yet potentially effective strategy to bring peace:
A Western alliance could engage with China's leadership and make it explicitly clear that, in the event of a Chinese invasion of Russian territory, Western nations would refrain from intervening militarily and would either minimize sanctions or forego them altogether.
Additionally, Western countries could agree to recognize China's territorial gains as legitimate, provided that China recognizes Taiwan as an independent nation.
China might seize such an opportunity and invade the Russian territories in question. Faced with its inability to defend itself, Russia would be forced to choose between losing significant territory to China or withdrawing from Ukraine to focus its resources on countering its Asian neighbor.
As an added benefit, this scenario would allow Western intelligence agencies to observe China's military capabilities in action, providing valuable insights into its strategic and operational strength.
